How can Twitter Beat the Odds?

Posted by Joshua S. Hill

April 7, 2008

A recent posting at Slashdot asked this question; Will Twitter Join Podcasting on the ‘Net Sidelines’?

In his Slashdot posting, Ian Lamont wrote “Twitter has established itself in some quarters as a must-have communications tool, and its power to connect and even incite people is hard to deny. But does Twitter have long-term, mainstream potential? Or does a poor revenue model and strong competition mean that it’s destined to be a sideline Internet technology, much like podcasting has failed to live up to early hype?”

It was an interesting question, one that I decided to take up and answer myself.

Introduction

First of all, I would like to point out that I have said “How can…” rather than simply “Can Twitter beat the odds?” I believe that Twitter can beat the odds, and that it can overcome a “poor revenue model” to become something that is still around in five years.

And I disagree entirely with Lamont when he said that there is “strong competition” for Twitter. Other services like Jaiku and Pownce have not taken off, and Twitter is still the number one. Like a canary in a coalmine or a wind sock, Leo Laporte will jump on whatever one is hottest! That he is back on Twitter is proof – at least part of the proof, in my opinion – that Twitter is the number one mini-blogger out there.

I’d also like to pause on his view that podcasting “has failed to live up to early hype.” I can’t imagine anything to be further from the truth. Podcasting seems to be spreading continually, thanks in part to the fact that it finally made it to the secular world. Everything is being podcasted now, from news to episodes, from Buzz Out Loud to Bill O’Reily.

Possibly I’ve already undermined any credibility Lamont may have had in his statement, but I wouldn’t imagine so. He could just as easily have said that Twitter had no competition and compared it to DIVX. Twitter would still be standing at the crossroads, and depending on what happens next, its future lies in the balance.

What Twitter Really is and does Really Well

I find that I often have to explain Twitter to people. Now that could possibly be because I am surrounded by a group of people who sum up the term “technologically incompetent” perfectly, or not. Either way, I feel like I have my Twitter spiel practice perfect by now.

In the beginning, there was Twitter. It was a mini-blogger, in a world where blogging was the be all and end all of personal expression on the internet. However it quickly became another online community, primarily made up of the tech elite, being pithy.

These two descriptions for Twitter make up two parts of the Twitter-Trinity; for it is the third that I feel will bring Twitter to the masses.

You see, unbeknownst to most, Twitter turned in to a fantastic free SMS service that acted really well in getting messages to a group of people. Take the Twitter’s of bands, which announce to the world when their next gig will be. Or the tweets that announce to a group of friends where they’ll be partying that night.

Mini-blogging, pithy comments to a community of friends, and group SMS.

How Twitter will Reach the Masses

The main problem before Twitter is first and foremost, getting out to the non-techies of the world. One look at my friend list on Twitter, and it is clear that with few exceptions, they are all friends from across my tech world of podcasts and websites.

Twitter really needs to market itself at this point. It needs to realize that it has the potential to work as a combination social-network/personal blog, and give people that contact between friends that they’ve craved for so long.

And by selling itself as the free SMS/friend alerter that we’ve all come to see it as, could do so much for Twitter.

Now I don’t mean Twitter has to turn in to Real Player and start installing itself in to everything from toolbars to software. Facebook didn’t have to do much for it to become the new MySpace in Australia and America, nor did iTunes to become one of the world’s biggest music distributors. It took time, sure, but there was nothing revolutionary about the way that they marketed themselves. What they were offering, though, was revolutionary.

How the Twitter-Trinity will Survive

Twitter already has the ability to earn money, but surprisingly enough they haven’t done it. Since I think what is its most recent update, Twitter now adds little ‘Tips’ in to the bottom of short tweets.

How easily that could turn in to targeted-advertising.

That, right there, is Twitter’s revenue model; the model that will provide them with the cash enough to slowly spread to the wider non-tech world.

I have one of those friendship groups that act as a ‘canary in the coalmine’ when it comes to tech. It took them ages to realize Facebook was the next MySpace, and it has taken them similarly long with iTunes and podcasts. But there they are, all listening to their iTunes purchased music, while poking each other on Facebook and downloading the latest podcast for their iPods.

And already a few of them have seen Twitter as something that has a use. It’s still laughed at as the self-aggrandizing mini-blogging that it was originally teased for; but still, the thought is there. Give them another 12 months, and I can guarantee you that we’ll all be on Twitter.

Either way, I don’t see Twitter as being on the sidelines for much longer. They might have been warming the bench, but the coach has just sent them out on to the field, and you better watch out because you’re going to cop a massive hit if you ignore them.

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